Economic and social drivers of school shootings: Analyzing recent trends

Content warning: This article discusses the frequency and impact of mass violence incidents, particularly school shootings. Gun violence, threats of gun violence, firearm supply, fatalities among minors, and bullying are discussed but not graphically described.

Since the start of the 2023 school year, Henrico County, Virginia has installed metal detectors in response to the rise in shooting threats throughout the county, which have negatively impacted students' mental health, reduced instructional time, and created significant disruptions. This issue is part of a broader national trend, with 349 school shootings occurring in the United States in 2023. We evaluated the impact of five key factors on school shootings: COVID-19 cases, gun supply, social media usage, income inequality, and inflation rate. We hypothesized that social media would show the strongest association with school shootings. Using a multiple linear regression model, we found social media usage, gun supply, and inflation rate to be significant factors, with social media having the strongest positive association, followed by inflation. Unexpectedly, gun supply showed a negative relationship, while COVID-19 cases and income inequality were not statistically significant. The significant factors (social media usage, gun supply, and inflation rate) highlight the urgent need to address the role of social media in amplifying harmful ideologies, the economic stress from inflation, and the importance of tracking gun accessibility. Future research should consider additional factors, such as mental health and school security measures, and conduct studies geographically to understand regional variations in these characteristics and the factors mentioned within our study using advanced modeling techniques to validate and expand upon these conclusions.