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Creating a drought prediction model using convolutional neural networks

Bora et al. | Oct 08, 2024

Creating a drought prediction model using convolutional neural networks
Image credit: The authors

Droughts kill over 45,000 people yearly and affect the livelihoods of 55 million others worldwide, with climate change likely to worsen these effects. However, unlike other natural disasters (hurricanes, etc.), there is no early detection system that can predict droughts far enough in advance to be useful. Bora, Caulkins, and Joycutty tackle this issue by creating a drought prediction model.

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Testing the Impact of a Geometric Curvature Variable on the Accuracy of Econometric Forecasting Models

Punatar et al. | Jul 26, 2026

Testing the Impact of a Geometric Curvature Variable on the Accuracy of Econometric Forecasting Models

Classical financial forecasting models often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of the stock market. This study demonstrates that incorporating a single variable to represent the 'geometric curvature' of a time series dramatically improves the accuracy of standard econometric forecasts. Our findings highlight that geometric properties are a significant predictive factor, opening new avenues for more powerful financial modeling.

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Identifying Neural Networks that Implement a Simple Spatial Concept

Zirvi et al. | Sep 13, 2022

Identifying Neural Networks that Implement a Simple Spatial Concept

Modern artificial neural networks have been remarkably successful in various applications, from speech recognition to computer vision. However, it remains less clear whether they can implement abstract concepts, which are essential to generalization and understanding. To address this problem, the authors investigated the above vs. below task, a simple concept-based task that honeybees can solve, using a conventional neural network. They found that networks achieved 100% test accuracy when a visual target was presented below a black bar, however only 50% test accuracy when a visual target was presented below a reference shape.

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The Effect of Varying Training on Neural Network Weights and Visualizations

Fountain et al. | Dec 04, 2019

The Effect of Varying Training on Neural Network Weights and Visualizations

Neural networks are used throughout modern society to solve many problems commonly thought of as impossible for computers. Fountain and Rasmus designed a convolutional neural network and ran it with varying levels of training to see if consistent, accurate, and precise changes or patterns could be observed. They found that training introduced and strengthened patterns in the weights and visualizations, the patterns observed may not be consistent between all neural networks.

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